IMF: AI investment supports growth, but 40% of jobs may be affected

The IMF says AI infrastructure investment is helping keep global growth near 3% while AI may affect about 40% of jobs. What should businesses and workers prepare for?

Main report

On October 12, 2026, at the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said heavy investment in AI infrastructure is helping keep global growth around 3%. Reuters reported that Asian economies supplying AI hardware may receive a larger share of the benefits.

The two sides of AI investment

Data centers, chips, memory, power and networking create substantial investment demand. The gains, however, are unlikely to be distributed evenly. The IMF has estimated that AI could affect about 40% of jobs worldwide and roughly 60% in advanced economies. “Affected” does not mean every job disappears: some tasks may be augmented, some roles redesigned and some positions reduced.

The 3% figure describes global economic growth in the current environment. It should not be interpreted as AI alone adding three percentage points to growth.

Analysis

TBN Grow analysis: measure tasks, not headlines

A small business does not need to begin by asking how many employees AI will replace. A more useful question is which tasks can be completed faster without lowering quality. AI may help draft content, classify requests or summarize documents, while people verify data, context and final decisions.

Four useful measures

• Completion time before and after adoption.
• The share of outputs accepted and the share requiring correction.
• Tool cost plus employee review time.
• Errors affecting customers, data or revenue.

Counting generated output alone can overstate productivity by ignoring correction costs. For workers, durable capability means understanding the workflow, checking results and using AI within clear responsibilities—not merely writing prompts.

What to watch

How businesses and workers can prepare

Start with a low-risk workflow, clear acceptance criteria and non-sensitive data. Train people around real tasks rather than the feature list of one product. Record what is automated, where human approval remains necessary and which skills need to change.

At the policy level, the IMF highlights skills, digital infrastructure and social protection as factors determining whether AI augments workers or increases inequality. The business-level parallel is to invest in tools, process design and people together.

This article is part of TBN Grow's AI infrastructure economics cluster. Read the pillar article on AI infrastructure's trillion-dollar returns test for the gap between spending and sustainable returns.

Verified sources: Reuters, October 12, 2026, the IMF's AI topic page and IMF Note 2026/002.